After nearly driving me into early retirement yesterday, the Wrap returns to a slightly more svelte form, with a total of 31 polls showing a drastic reduction from yesterday’s record, which topped out at 65 polls.
With the tiniest bit of a breather, and the full understanding that we may not see another one, let’s look at the path to 270 electoral votes today. At this point, it is fairly evident that the presidential race has been recalibrated. It still is at least a bit of an open question if the shift is permanent or transient, and whether that shift is weaker in the states that will matter most on Nov. 6, of course. That said, supporters of Mitt Romney have to be a great deal more enthused about their prospects than they were at the start of the month.
But can that translate to 270 electoral votes? That is a considerably tougher call.
More on that later. For now, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 46 (RV)
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 46, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 42 (RV)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 47
COLORADO (SurveyUSA): Romney 48, Obama 47
FLORIDA (American Research Group): Romney 49, Obama 46
MAINE (NMB Research for the Crossroads GPS PAC): Obama 48, Romney 44 (state); Romney 49, Obama 44 (ME-02)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 47
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama 52, Romney 45
NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Romney 50, Obama 46
NORTH CAROLINA (UNC/High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 45
SOUTH DAKOTA (Nielson Brothers): Romney 52, Obama 41
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 49, Obama 47
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
FL-SEN (Mason-Dixon): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42
NJ-SEN (Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Robert Mendendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 35
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 47, Josh Mandel (R) 46
PA-SEN (Philadelphia Inquirer): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 38
WI-SEN (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D) 51, Tommy Thompson (R) 47
NH-GOV (American Research Group): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 46, Maggie Hassan (D) 40, John Babiarz (L) 3
NH-GOV (Univ. of New Hampshire): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 39, Maggie Hassan (D) 35, John Babiarz (L) 3
GA-12 (Benenson Strategy Group for the HMP–D): Rep. John Barrow (D) 48, Lee Anderson (R) 45
IL-10 (We Ask America–R): Rep. Bob Dold (R) 47, Brad Schneider (D) 45
IL-11 (We Ask America–R): Rep. Judy Biggert (R) 46, Bill Foster (D) 44
IL-12 (We Ask America–R): Jason Plummer (R) 44, Bill Enyart (D) 42, Paula Bradshaw (G) 3
IL-13 (We Ask America–R): Rodney Davis (R) 44, David Gill (D) 42, John Hartman (I) 6
IL-17 (We Ask America–R): Cheri Bustos (D) 46, Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 46
MI-03 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Pestka campaign): Rep. Justin Amash (R) 48, Steven Pestka (D) 44
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Frank Guinta (R) 45, Carol Shea-Porter (D) 35, Brendan Kelly (L) 3
NH-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Ann McLane Kuster (D) 38, Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 35, Others 3
NY-19 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Gibson campaign): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 50, Julian Schreibman (D) 39
SD-AL (Nielson Brothers): Rep. Kristi Noem (R) 49, Matt Varilek (D) 44
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump …
Source: Daily Kos