Barack Obama: 48 (48)
Mitt Romney: 45 (45)
Undecided: 6 (7)
Last Thursday was as big and momentous a news day as you could possibly imagine. A massive piece of legislation that stands to reshape America’s relationship with health insurance hung in the balance—and in a move that surprised many, was upheld as constitutional by the Supreme Court. It was all the political world could talk about for days, before and especially after.
Yet what effect did the ruling have on the presidential race? At least as far as Daily Kos & SEIU’s topline polling is concerned, absolutely none. Last week, Barack Obama led Mitt Romney 48-45. This week, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney… 48-45. Not much to see here at all!
We did see an interesting shift on our voter enthusiasm question, though. Though we normally ask it every other week, we included it this week so that we could have a direct basis for comparison. Before the ruling came down, 62% of Republicans said they were “very excited” to vote this fall while only 54% of Democrats did. After, “very excited” Republicans dropped to just 51% while Democrats increased to 58%.
That didn’t translate into a change in the Obama-Romney head-to-head, but it defies the conventional wisdom that the Supreme Court’s ruling would fire up Republican voters. In fact, it appears to have done just the opposite, though it’s worth keeping your eye on that question to see if it’s a momentary bump or the start of a trend.
P.S. As always, our approval and favorability numbers can be found on our weekly trends page.
Source: Daily Kos