Obama: 50 (45)
Romney: 45 (44)
PPP’s Tom Jensen says this is the biggest lead for Obama over Romney in Florida since PPP started polling in 2011. So despite his finally capturing the GOP nomination over Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich—Mitt Romney not only can’t close the deal, he’s falling further behind.
The GOP’s problems aren’t just at the top of the ticket, either. Their bench in Florida is weak:
We also looked at how four prominent Florida Republicans- Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Allen West, and Rick Scott- might affect the race as Vice Presidential candidates. Only Bush has a positive impact for Romney, bringing the race within three points at 49-46.
When the only candidate to give you a boost is a George W. Bush’s brother, you know you’re in rough shape. Romney’s problems stem from an extraordinarily massive gender gap. Romney actually leads among men by 10 points, 53-43. But among women, President Obama has a massive 16-point lead, 55-39. If these kinds of numbers hold, Florida in 2012 may shape up to be almost as close as it was in 2008—when Obama won by 2.5 percent—but with a radically different gender gap. In 2008, the gap was just 1 point—in this survey, it’s 26.